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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

But the current field is profoundly different. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions fading and longtime also-rans improving collectively. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and fun season, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still