How Donald Trump Achieved a Gaza Breakthrough Which Escaped Joe Biden
Initially, Israel's air strike on the Hamas negotiating team in Doha seemed like yet another intensification that pushed the hope of a ceasefire further away.
This strike on 9 September breached the sovereignty of an US partner and threatened widening the conflict into a region-wide war.
Negotiations appeared to be in ruins.
Instead, it turned out to be a pivotal event that culminated in a agreement, announced by Donald Trump, to free all captives still held.
This is a objective that he, and President Joe Biden previously, had pursued for almost 24 months.
This marks just the first step towards a more durable peace, and the specifics of disarming Hamas, Gaza governance and full Israeli withdrawal are still to be negotiated.
Yet if this deal holds, it could be Donald Trump's signature achievement of his return to office - one that eluded Biden and his administration.
Trump's distinct approach and crucial relationships with the Israeli government and the Arab world seem to have played a role in this breakthrough.
But, as with most foreign policy wins, there were also elements involved beyond the control of both leaders.
A Close Relationship That Eluded Biden
In public, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are all smiles.
Trump often states that the nation has no greater ally, and the Israeli leader has called him as Israel's "greatest ever ally in the White House". Moreover these warm words have been backed up by deeds.
Throughout his first presidential term, Trump relocated the US embassy in Israel from its former location to Jerusalem and discarded a traditional American stance that Israeli settlements in the occupied territories are against international law, the view under global norms.
When Israel began its bombing campaign against the Islamic Republic in the summer, Trump directed American aircraft to strike the Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities with its largest non-nuclear weapons.
Those visible shows of support may have allowed Trump the room to apply more influence on the Israeli government behind the scenes. According to reports, Trump's envoy, his representative, pressured the prime minister in late 2024 into agreeing to a halt in fighting in exchange for the freeing of a number of captives.
When Israel attacked against Syrian forces in the summer, even bombing a place of worship, Trump urged Netanyahu to alter tactics.
The leader exhibited a degree of will and pressure on an Israeli prime minister that is virtually unprecedented, according to Aaron David Miller of the a think tank. "It's unheard of of an US leader directly instructing an Israeli leader that they must agree or else."
Joe Biden's connection with the Israeli administration was always more tenuous.
The Biden team's "close embrace strategy" held that the US had to embrace Israel publicly in order to allow it to moderate the country's military actions behind closed doors.
Beneath this was the president's decades-long of backing for Israel, as well as sharp divisions within his Democratic coalition over the Gaza War. Every step the leader took endangered dividing his own domestic support, while his successor's solid Republican base provided him more room to manoeuvre.
Ultimately, internal considerations or individual ties may have had less importance than the simple fact that, throughout his term, Israel was not ready to make peace.
Several months into Trump's second term, with Iran chastened, the militant group to its immediate north significantly reduced and Gaza devastated, all its major strategy objectives had been achieved.
Commercial Background Assisted Gain Gulf's Backing
The Israeli missile attack in Doha, which killed a local national but not the intended targets, prompted the president to issue an final demand to Netanyahu. Hostilities had to end.
Trump had given the Israeli military a significant latitude in Gaza. The president provided US armed support to Israeli operations in Iran. However an strike on Qatari territory was a different matter completely, pushing him towards the stance of Arab nations on how best to conclude the conflict.
A number of Trump officials have informed media outlets that this was a decisive moment which motivated the leader to apply maximum pressure to get a peace deal done.
The leader's strong connections with the Gulf states are well documented. Trump has business dealings with the emirate and the United Arab Emirates. He began both his presidential terms with state visits to Saudi Arabia. Recently, Trump also visited in Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
His Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and several Muslim states, such as the UAE, was the biggest foreign policy success of his first term.
His visits he spent in the capitals of the Gulf region earlier this year contributed to change his thinking, according to an expert of the Council on Foreign Relations. Trump did not travel to Israel on this Middle East trip but visited the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar where the leader received repeated calls to bring an end to the war.
Less than a month after that Israeli strike on Doha, the president was present nearby as Netanyahu himself called Qatar to apologise. Subsequently, the Israeli leader signed off on the president's comprehensive proposal for the territory - one that also had the backing of influential Arab states in the region.
Assuming the president's alliance with Netanyahu gave him the room to pressure the government to reach an agreement, his history with Muslim leaders may have secured their support, and helped them convince Hamas to commit to the deal.
"A key factor that clearly happened was that the US leader developed influence with the Israeli government, and indirectly with the militants," says Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"This was crucial. His ability to achieve this on his timing, and avoid yielding to the demands of the warring sides has been a challenge that many earlier administrations have faced, and he appears to do with some success."
The fact that Trump is much more popular in the nation than Netanyahu himself was leverage that he employed to his benefit, he adds.
Currently the Israeli government has agreed to releasing more than 1,000 detainees held in its jails and has agreed to a limited pullback from the strip.
The group will release all the remaining hostages, both alive and deceased, captured in the original 7 October Hamas attack, which caused the loss of over 1,200 Israeli citizens.
An end to the war, which has led to the devastation of Gaza and the fatalities of more than 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal